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A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt

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  • Jeremy I. Bulow
  • Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

Few sovereign debtors have repudiated their obligations entirely. But despite the significant sanctions at the disposal of lenders, many borrowers have been able to consistently negotiate for reduced repayments. This paper presents a model of the on-going bargaining process that determines repayment levels. We derive a bargaining equilibrium in which countries with large debts achieve negotiated partial default. The ability to credibly threaten more draconian penalties in the event of repudiation may be of no benefit to lenders. Furthermore, unanticipated increases in world interest rates may actually help the borrowers by making lenders more inpatient for a negotiated settlement. Finally, Western governments may be induced to make payments to facilitate reschedulings even though efficient agreements will be reached without their intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2088.

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Date of creation: Feb 1987
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Publication status: published as Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 6, December 1988.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2088

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  1. Ariel Rubinstein, 2010. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 252, David K. Levine.
  2. Steven C. Kyle & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Developing Country Debt and the Market Value of Large Commercial Banks," NBER Working Papers 1470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Moran, Theodore H., 1973. "Transnational Strategies of Protection and Defense by Multinational Corporations: Spreading the Risk and Raising the Cost for Nationalization in Natural Resources," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 273-287, March.
  4. Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-64, November.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "The Pricing of Bonds and Bank Loans in International Markets: An Empirical Analysis of Developing Countries' Foreign Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cohen, Daniel & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Growth and external debt under risk of debt repudiation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 529-560, June.
  7. Sutton, John, 1986. "Non-cooperative Bargaining Theory: An Introduction," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 709-24, October.
  8. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1983. "Some Aspects of the 1982-83 Brazilian Payments Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 515-552.
  9. Eichengreen, Barry, 1987. "Till Debt Do Us Part: The US Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920-1955," CEPR Discussion Papers 212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Dixit, Avinash, 1987. " Issues of Strategic Trade Policy for Small Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 349-67.
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1986. "The pure theory of country risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-513, June.
    • Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  13. Roth, Alvin E, 1985. "A Note on Risk Aversion in a Perfect Equilibrium Model of Bargaining," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 207-11, January.
  14. Admati, Anat R & Perry, Motty, 1987. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 345-64, July.
  15. Eaton, Jonathan & Taylor, Lance, 1986. "Developing country finance and debt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-265, June.
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Blog mentions

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  1. The science of haircuts
    by Olaf Storbeck in Economics Intelligence on 2011-07-19 08:16:34
  2. Greece: CanÂ’t Pay/WonÂ’t Pay? by Mark Harrison
    by Mark Harrison in Mark Harrison's blog on 2012-05-23 16:54:58
  3. Quels sont les coûts d’un défaut souverain ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-08-02 13:35:00
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