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Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt

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Author Info
Darrell Duffie (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University,)
Lasse Heje Pedersen (Stern School of Business, New York University)
Kenneth J. Singleton (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University,)

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Abstract

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds. We consider the determinants of the Russian yield spread, the yield differential across different Russian bonds, and the implications for market integration, relative liquidity, relative expected recovery rates, and implied expectations of different default scenarios. Copyright 2003 by the American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 119-159
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:1:p:119-159

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  2. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2002. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," NBER Working Papers 8990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Asset-Backed Securitization," MPRA Paper 4988, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. K. Giesecke, . "Credit Risk Modeling and Valuation: an Introduction," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-54, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  6. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "ABS, MBS and CDO compared: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 5028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Broner, Fernando A. & Lorenzoni, Guido & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Why do emerging economies borrow short term?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3389, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Rodolfo A. Oviedo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-55, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2006. "Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions," NBER Working Papers 9778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Liz Dixon-Smith & Roman Goossens & Simon Hayes, . "Default probabilities and expected recovery: an analysis of emerging market sovereign bonds," Bank of England working papers 261, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra Le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  15. David Hauner, 2005. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," IMF Working Papers 05/81, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Federico Sturzenegger, 2002. "Defaults in the 90´s: Factbook and Preliminary Lessons," Business School Working Papers veintidos, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hisashi Nakamura, 2007. "Strategic Default Jump as Impulse Control in Continuous Time," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-532, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  18. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2007. "Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?," NBER Working Papers 13119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2001. "Sovereign Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Robert Kimmel, 2002. "Estimating Affine Multifactor Term Structure Models Using Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
  22. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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