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Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds

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Author Info
Claessens, Stijn
Pennacchi, George

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Abstract

Market prices of developing country debt reflect investors' views of country repayment capacity as well as other debt-specific factors. To extract a measure of repayment capacity from debt prices, adjustments need to be made to account for: debt values being a concave function of repayment capacity; the specific terms of the debt agreement; and the presence of third-party guarantees. This paper derives a measure of repayment capacity by constructing a pricing model that takes these factors into account. Applying the model to Brady bonds issued by Mexico, we find that estimated repayment capacity often performs differently from the unadjusted bond prices. We demonstrate that other Mexican bonds can be priced fairly accurately on the basis of this repayment capacity measure.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 31 (1996)
Issue (Month): 01 (March)
Pages: 109-126
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:31:y:1996:i:01:p:109-126_00

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  1. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2004. "Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 500, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oosterlinck Kim, 2004. "Why Do Investors Still Hope? The Soviet Repudiation Puzzle (1918- 1919)," Economic History 0409002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Erik Durbin & David Tat-Chee Ng, 1999. "Uncovering country risk in emerging market bond prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 639, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Cumby, Robert & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging Market Debt: Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John J. Merrick Jr., 1999. "Crisis Dynamics of Implied Default Recovery Ratios: Evidence From Russia and Argentina," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-052, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra Le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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