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Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002

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  • Andrade, Sandro C.

    (School of Business Administration, University of Miami)

  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel

    (Economics Department, University of Warwick)

Abstract

Using survey data, we document that foreign-owned institutions became more pessimistic than locally owned institutions about the strength of the Brazilian currency around the 2002 presidential elections. As a result of their relative pessimism, foreignowned institutions made larger forecast errors. Consistent with the emergence of their relative pessimism, foreign investors heavily sold Brazilian stocks and the Brazilian currency in futures markets ahead of the 2002 elections. Periods of stronger foreign sell-off were associated with larger equity price declines and larger depreciation of the Brazilian Real in spot and futures markets. These results are consistent with foreign investors’ lack of knowledge of Brazilian institutions contributing to the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian currency and stock market ahead of the 2002 presidential elections.

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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 926.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:926

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Keywords: currency crisis ; portfolio flows ; difference of opinions ; elections JEL Codes: F31 ; F36 ; G15;

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  1. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.

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