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Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

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  • de Jong, Frank
  • de Roon, Frans
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    Abstract

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong effects of the level of integration or segmentation on the expected returns in emerging markets. The expected returns depend both on the level of segmentation of the emerging market itself and on the regional segmentation level. We also find that there is significant time-variation in the betas relative to the world portfolio because of the level of segmentation. For the composite index of the emerging markets we find an annual increase in beta of 0.09 due to decreased segmentation of the emerging markets in our sample period. In terms of expected returns the total effect on the composite index translates into an average decrease of 4.5% per annum. As predicted by our model, the noninvestable assets are more sensitive to the local and less to the regional level of segmentation than the investable assets. These conclusions do not change when using additional control variables. We do not find a clear pattern between volatility and segmentation, however.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3102.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3102

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    Related research

    Keywords: asset pricing; emerging markets; market integration;

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    References

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000. "Hedging pressure effects in futures markets," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83944, Tilburg University.
    3. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bae, Kee-Hong & Chan, Kalok & Ng, Angela, 2004. "Investibility and return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 239-263, February.
    2. Borys, Magdalena Morgese Borys, 2011. "Testing Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models in the Visegrad Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 118-139, June.
    3. Francis E. Warnock & Hali J. Edison, 2001. "A Simple Measure of the intensity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 01/180, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," NBER Working Papers 9288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Driesprong, G. & Jacobsen, B. & Maat, B., 2003. "Striking Oil: Another Puzzle," Research Paper ERS-2003-082-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    6. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    7. Gregory Birg & Brian M. Lucey, 2006. "Integration Of Smaller European Equity Markets : A Time-Varying Integration Score Analysis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp136, IIIS.
    8. Christian Aubin & Jean-Pierre Berdot & Daniel Goyeau & Jacques Léonard, 2005. "Quelle convergence financière pour les pecos ?. Une analyse économétrique de l'évolution des marchés d'actions (1998-2003)," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(1), pages 147-169.

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