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The success of stock selection strategies in emerging markets: Is it risk or behavioral bias?

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  • van der Hart, Jaap
  • de Zwart, Gerben
  • van Dijk, Dick

Abstract

We examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies based on value, momentum and earnings revisions indicators. The findings for value and momentum strategies are consistent with the evidence from developed markets supporting behavioral explanations. In addition, for value stocks, the most important behavioral bias appears to be related to underestimation of long-term growth prospects, as indicated by overly pessimistic analysts' earnings forecasts and above average earnings revisions for longer postformation horizons and by quite rapidly improving earnings growth expectations. Furthermore, we find that overreaction effects play a limited role for the earnings revisions strategy, as there is no clear return reversal up until five years after portfolio formation, setting this strategy apart from momentum strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 238-262

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:6:y:2005:i:3:p:238-262

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huij, Joop & Post, Thierry, 2011. "On the performance of emerging market equity mutual funds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 238-249, September.
  2. Galariotis, Emilios C., 2010. "What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 369-389, September.
  3. Blitz, David & Pang, Juan & van Vliet, Pim, 2013. "The volatility effect in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 31-45.
  4. de Groot, Wilma & Pang, Juan & Swinkels, Laurens, 2012. "The cross-section of stock returns in frontier emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 796-818.
  5. Emilios Galariotis, 2010. "What should investors know about the stability of momentum investing and its riskiness? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Post-Print hal-00917587, HAL.

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