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Bayesian Inference and Portfolio Efficiency

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Author Info
Kandel, Shmuel
McCulloch, Robert
Stambaugh, Robert F

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Abstract

A Bayesian approach is used to investigate a sample's information about a portfolio's degree of inefficiency. With standard diffuse priors, posterior distributions for measures of portfolio inefficiency can concentrate well away from values consistent with efficiency, even when the portfolio is exactly efficient in the sample. The data indicate that the NYSE - AMEX market portfolio is rather inefficient in the presence of a riskless asset, although this conclusion is justified only after an analysis using informative priors. Including a riskless asset significantly reduces any sample's ability to produce posterior distributions supporting small degrees of inefficiency. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 8 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-53
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:8:y:1995:i:1:p:1-53

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1989. "A Mean-Variance Framework for Tests of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 125-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1990. "Bayesian inference in asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 221-254, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1991. "A bayesian approach to testing the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 141-168. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "On correlations and inferences about mean-variance efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Shanken, Jay, 1987. "A Bayesian approach to testing portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1990. "Posterior, predictive, and utility-based approaches to testing the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Multivariate proxies and asset pricing relations : Living with the Roll critique," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 91-110, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Oldfield, George S. & Rogalski, Richard J., 1987. "The stochastic properties of term structure movements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-254, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles S. Bos & Ronald J. Mahieu & Herman K. van Dijk, 2001. "Daily Exchange Rate Behaviour and Hedging of Currency Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-017/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Klaas Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, 1999. "Bayesian Performance Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 7069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Post, G.T., 2005. "A Test for Mean-Variance Efficiency of a given Portfolio under Restrictions," Research Paper ERS-2005-032-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Joel Owen & Ramón Rabinovitch, 1999. "Ranking Portfolio Performance: An Application of a Joint Means and Variances Equality Test," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 97-130, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2002. "Asset Allocation in Transition Economies," Documents de Travail 90, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  7. Klaas Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, . "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1997. "Analyzing Investments Whose Histories Differ in Length," NBER Working Papers 5918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1998. "Costs of Equity Capital and Model Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 6490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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