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Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital

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Author Info
Lubos Pastor
Meenakshi Sinha
Bhaskaran Swaminathan

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Abstract

We reexamine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis, we construct the time series of the implied cost of capital for the G-7 countries. We find strong support for a positive intertemporal mean-variance relation at both the country level and the world market level. Some of our evidence is consistent with international integration of the G-7 financial markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11941.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11941

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Smith, Ron & Zoega, Gylfi, 2008. "Global Factors, Unemployment Adjustment and the Natural Rate," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(22), pages 1-29. [Downloadable!]
  2. Long Chen & Hui Guo & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Equity market volatility and expected risk premium," Working Papers 2006-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rajan, Madhav & Reichelstein, Stefan J. & Soliman, Mark T., 2006. "Conservatism, Growth, and Return on Investment," Research Papers 1956, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Anisha Ghosh & Oliver Linton, 2009. "Consistent estimation of the risk-return tradeoff in the presence of measurement error," Economics Working Papers we094928, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Investigating the intertemporal risk-return relation in international stock markets with the component GARCH model," Working Papers 2006-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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