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A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell

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Abstract

This paper shows that unexpected stock returns must be associated with changes in expected future dividends or expected future returns A vector autoregressive method is used to break unexpected stock returns into these two components. In U.S. monthly data in 1927-88, one-third of the variance of unexpected returns is attributed to the variance of changing expected dividends, one-third to the variance of changing expected returns, and one-third to the covariance of the two components. Changing expected returns have a large effect on stock prices because they are persistent: a 1% innovation in the expected return is associated with a 4 or 5% capital loss. Changes in expected returns are negatively correlated with changes in expected dividends, increasing the stock market reaction to dividend news. In the period 1952-88, changing expected. returns account for a larger fraction of stock return variation than they do in the period 1927-51.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3246.

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Date of creation: Sep 1991
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Publication status: published as The Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 405, pp. 157-179, (March 1991).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3246

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27, pages 103-139. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Campbell, John Y, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 43-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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