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Risk, Return and Dividends

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  • Ang, Andrew
  • Liu, Jun

Abstract

We characterize the joint dynamics of expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, the stock volatility determines the expected return and the price-dividend ratio. By parameterizing one, or more, of expected returns, volatility, or prices, common empirical specifications place strong, and sometimes inconsistent, restrictions on the dynamics of the other variables. Our results are useful for understanding the risk-return trade-off, as well as characterizing the predictability of stock returns.

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Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt1s25177n.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt1s25177n

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Keywords: risk-return trade-off; risk premium; stochastic volatility; predictability;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Kanniainen, Juho & Piché, Robert, 2013. "Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 722-740.
  2. Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2006. "Expected stock returns and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  5. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
  6. Juho Kanniainen & Robert Pich\'e, 2012. "Stock Price Dynamics and Option Valuations under Volatility Feedback Effect," Papers 1209.4718, arXiv.org.
  7. Pollet, Joshua M. & Wilson, Mungo, 2010. "Average correlation and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 364-380, June.

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