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Average correlation and stock market returns

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  • Pollet, Joshua M.
  • Wilson, Mungo
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    Abstract

    If the Roll critique is important, changes in the variance of the stock market may be only weakly related to changes in aggregate risk and subsequent stock market excess returns. However, since individual stock returns share a common sensitivity to true market return shocks, higher aggregate risk can be revealed by higher correlation between stocks. In addition, a change in stock market variance that leaves aggregate risk unchanged can have a zero or even negative effect on the stock market risk premium. We show that the average correlation between daily stock returns predicts subsequent quarterly stock market excess returns. We also show that changes in stock market risk holding average correlation constant can be interpreted as changes in the average variance of individual stocks. Such changes have a negative relation with future stock market excess returns.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 96 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 364-380

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:96:y:2010:i:3:p:364-380

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Correlation Roll critique;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Dror Y. Kenett & Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2014. "Partial correlation analysis: Applications for financial markets," Papers 1402.1405, arXiv.org.
    2. Satoshi Sakamaki, 2013. "The Securities-Correlation Risks and the Volatility Effects in the Japanese Stock Market," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(3), pages 531-552, September.
    3. Vozlyublennaia, Nadia & Meshcheryakov, Artem, 2014. "Dynamic correlation structure and security risk," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-64.
    4. Jin-Li Hu & Tzu-Pu Chang & Ray Chou, 2014. "Market conditions and the effect of diversification on mutual fund performance: should funds be more concentrative under crisis?," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 141-151, February.
    5. Cenedese, Gino & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2014. "Foreign exchange risk and the predictability of carry trade returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 302-313.
    6. Dong Lou & Christopher Polk, . "Inferring Arbitrage Activity from Return Correlations," FMG Discussion Papers dp721, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Chester Curme & Michele Tumminello & Rosario N. Mantegna & H. Eugene Stanley & Dror Y. Kenett, 2014. "Emergence of statistically validated financial intraday lead-lag relationships," Papers 1401.0462, arXiv.org.
    8. Xia, X.H. & Huang, G.T. & Chen, G.Q. & Zhang, Bo & Chen, Z.M. & Yang, Q., 2011. "Energy security, efficiency and carbon emission of Chinese industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3520-3528, June.

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