Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Was There A Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pástor, Luboš
  • Veronesi, Pietro

Abstract

Not necessarily. The fundamental value of a firm increases with uncertainty about average future profitability, and this uncertainty was unusually high in the late 1990s. We calibrate a stock valuation model that includes this uncertainty, and show that the uncertainty needed to match the observed Nasdaq valuations at their peak is high but plausible. The high uncertainty might also explain the unusually high return volatility of Nasdaq stocks in the late 1990s. Uncertainty has the biggest effect on stock prices when the equity premium is low.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP4485.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4485.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4485

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: bubble; uncertainty; valuation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  2. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2002. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," NBER Working Papers 8991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm258, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2002.
  5. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, 08.
  6. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  8. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-83.
  9. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
  10. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 462, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 361, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  12. Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October.
  14. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. William J. Wilhelm & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2002. "IPO Pricing in the Dot-com Bubble," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002fe07, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  16. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  17. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980, October.
  18. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Working Papers 9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  19. Peter M. Garber, 2001. "Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571536, December.
  20. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  21. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
  22. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04.
  23. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  24. Michael J. Cooper, 2001. "A Rose.com by Any Other Name," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2371-2388, December.
  25. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
  26. Lubo Pástor, . "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," CRSP working papers 498, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  27. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2002. "The Valuation and Market Rationality of Internet Stock Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 265-287.
  28. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  29. Wayne R. Landsman, 2002. "Has the Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Declined in the Past Three Decades?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 797-808, 06.
  30. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52.
  31. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  32. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
  33. Timothy C. Johnson, 2004. "Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 1957-1978, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.