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A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash

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  • Donaldson, R Glen
  • Kamstra, Mark

Abstract

We develop a new procedure to forecast future cash flows from a financial asset and then use the present value of our cash flow forecasts to calculate the asset's fundamental price. As an example, we construct a nonlinear ARMA-ARCH-Artificial Neural Network Model to obtain out-of-sample dividend forecasts for 1920 and beyond, using only in-sample dividend data. The present value of our forecasted dividends yield fundamental prices that reproduce the magnitude, timing, and time-series behavior of the boom and crash in 1929 stock prices. We therefore reject the popular claim that the 1920s stock market contained a bubble. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 9 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 333-83

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:9:y:1996:i:2:p:333-83

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Cited by:
  1. Mark J. Kamstra & Robert J. Shiller, 2009. "The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1717, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Brée, David S. & Joseph, Nathan Lael, 2013. "Testing for financial crashes using the Log Periodic Power Law model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 287-297.
  3. Eugene N. White, 2004. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," FRU Working Papers 2004/09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
  4. Carlos, Ann M. & Moyen, Nathalie & Hill, Jonathan, 2002. "Royal African Company Share Prices during the South Sea Bubble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 61-87, January.
  5. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
  6. Pietro Veronesi & Lubos Pastor, 2005. "Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?," 2005 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Chow, Gregory C. & Fan, Zhao-zhi & Hu, Jin-yan, 1999. "Shanghai Stock Prices as Determined by the Present-Value Model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 553-561, September.
  8. Campbell, Gareth & Turner, John, 2010. "‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania," MPRA Paper 21820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kanas, Angelos & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2001. "Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 383-398, December.
  10. Mark Kamstra & Rpbert J. Shiller, 2008. "The Case for Trills: Giving Canadians and their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 271, August.
  11. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
  12. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
  13. Campbell, Gareth, 2012. "Myopic rationality in a Mania," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-91.

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