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The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?

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Author Info
Lettau, Martin
Ludvigson, Sydney
Wachter, Jessica

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Abstract

Aggregate stock prices, relative to virtually any indicator of fundamental value, soared to unprecedented levels in the 1990s. Even today, after the market declines since 2000, they remain well above historical norms. Why? We consider one particular explanation: a fall in macroeconomic risk, or the volatility of the aggregate economy. Empirically, we find a strong correlation between low frequency movements in macroeconomic volatility and low frequency movements in the stock market. To model this phenomenon, we estimate a two-state regime switching model for the volatility and mean of consumption growth, and find evidence of a shift to substantially lower consumption volatility at the beginning of the 1990s. We then use these estimates from post-war data to calibrate a rational asset pricing model with regime switches in both the mean and standard deviation of consumption growth. Plausible parameterizations of the model are found to account for a significant portion of the run-up in asset valuation ratios observed in the late 1990s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5519.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5519

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Related research
Keywords: equity premium macroeconomic volatility regime shifts stock market boom

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  2. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Interpreting Aggregate Stock Market Behavior: How Far Can the Standard Model Go?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 5, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sanjay Banerjee & Parantap Basu, 2005. " Uninsured Risks, Loan Contracts and the Declining Equity Premium," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0502, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-Varying VAR," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Keith Sill, 2006. "Macroeconomic volatility and the equity premium," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2006. "Multifrequency Jump-Diffusions: An Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 12797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Great moderations and U.S. interest rates: unconditional evidence," Working Paper 2008-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Research series 200711-27, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Frode Brevik & Stefano d'Addona, 2005. "Information Quality and Stock Returns Revisited," Finance 0511006, EconWPA, revised 28 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori & Kokou Topeglo, 2006. "Bond Market “Conundrum”: New Factors Explaining Long-term Interest Rates?," Working Papers CEB 06-024.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Nan Li, 2005. "Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 11476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Andrew B. Abel, 2006. "Equity Premia with Benchmark Levels of Consumption: Closed-Form Results," NBER Working Papers 12290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mark Gertler, 2003. "Whither monetary and financial stability? : the implications of evolving policy regimes : commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 213-223. [Downloadable!]
  18. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 12766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 283-300. [Downloadable!]
  20. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  22. Christian Calmès & Ying Liu, 2005. "Financial Structure Change and Banking Income: a Canada-U.S. Comparison," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp0302005, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
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