Can a well-fitted equilibrium asset pricing model produce mean reversion?
AbstractIn recent papers, Cecchetti et al (1990) and Kandel and Stambaugh (1990) showed that negative serial correlation in long horizon returns was consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing. In this paper we show that their results rely on misspecified Markov switching models for the endowment process. Once the proper Markov specification is chosen for the endowment process, the model does not produce mean reversion of the magnitude detected in the data. Furthermore, the small amount of mean reversion produced by the model is due only to small sample bias. We also show that this model is unable to predict negative excess returns, contrary to empirical evidence. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 270.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 1992
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Other versions of this item:
- Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1994. "Can a Well-Fitted Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model Produce Mean Reversion?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 19-29, Jan.-Marc.
- Bonomo, m. & Garcia, r., 1991. "Can Well-Fitted Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model Produce Mean Reversion?," Cahiers de recherche 9127, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Bonomo, m. & Garcia, r., 1991. "Can Well-Fitted Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model Produce Mean Reversion?," Cahiers de recherche 9127, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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- Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 1996.
"Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics,"
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Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 979-1006.
- Bartholomew Moore & Huntley Schaller, 1997. "Learning, Regime Switches, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 199501, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson & Jessica Wachter, 2005. "The declining equity premium: what role does macroeconomic risk play?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Wachter, Jessica, 2006. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2004. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," NBER Working Papers 10270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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