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Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

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Author Info
GARCIA,René
LUGER, Richard
RENAULT, Éric

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Abstract

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/351
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2001-10.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2001-10

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Related research
Keywords: oion icing; stochastic discount factor; stochastic volatility; Black-Scholes imied volatility; smile effect; equilibrium oion icing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General

Cited by:
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  1. Patrick Gagliardini & C. Gourieroux & E. Renault, 2005. "Efficient Derivative Pricing by Extended Method of Moments," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sergio Pastorello & Valentin Patilea & Éric Renault, 2003. "Iterative and Recursive Estimation in Structural Non-Adaptive Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-08, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Documents de Travail 223, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2006. "Multifrequency Jump-Diffusions: An Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 12797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Silvia Goncalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Predictable dynamics in the S&P 500 index options implied volatility surface," Working Papers 2005-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2001. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-01, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2003. "The Importance of the Loss Function in Option Valuation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-52, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Caio Ibsen R. Almeida & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Term Structure Movements Implicit in Option Prices," Working Papers Series 128, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  13. Rene Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2004. "Option Prices, Preferences, and State Variables," Emory Economics 0418, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  14. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Documents de Travail 188, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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