Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yukalov, V.I.
  • Sornette, D.
  • Yukalova, E.P.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes into account (i) the price formation delay between decision and investment by the second-order nature of the dynamical equations, (ii) the linear and nonlinear mean-reversal or their contrarian in the form of speculative price trading, (iii) market friction, (iv) uncertainty in the fundamental value that controls the amplitude of mispricing, (v) nonlinear speculative momentum effects and (vi) market regulations that may limit large mispricing drifts. We find markets with coexisting equilibrium, conventions and business cycles that depend on (a) the relative strength of value-investing versus momentum-investing, (b) the level of uncertainty on the fundamental value, and (c) the degree of market regulation. The stochastic dynamics is characterized by nonlinear geometric random walk-like processes with spontaneous regime shifts between different conventions or business cycles. This model provides a natural dynamical framework to model regime shifts between different market phases that may result from the interplay between the effects (i-vi).

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8F-4V74XHD-2/2/b2aca62e546f977e49ec785bf5830b17
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

    Volume (Year): 70 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 (May)
    Pages: 206-230

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:70:y:2009:i:1-2:p:206-230

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

    Related research

    Keywords: Prices Business fluctuations and cycles Simultaneous equation models General aggregative models;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    2. J. Doyne Farmer, 1999. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 651, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bonomo, M. & Garcia, R., 1991. "Consumption and Equilibrium Asset Pricing: an Empirical Assessment," Cahiers de recherche 9126, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. V. I. Yukalov, 2001. "Self-similar approach to market analysis," Papers cond-mat/0110285, arXiv.org.
    6. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
    7. Boyer, Robert & Orlean, Andre, 1992. "How Do Conventions Evolve?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 165-77, October.
    8. Broekstra, Gerrit & Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2005. "Bubble, critical zone and the crash of Royal Ahold," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 529-560.
    9. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    10. D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2001. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0104341, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2002.
    11. D. Sornette, 2000. "Stock Market Speculation: Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking of Economic Valuation," Papers cond-mat/0004001, arXiv.org.
    12. He, Hua & Leland, Hayne, 1993. "On Equilibrium Asset Price Processes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 593-617.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Clark, 1991. "The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments," NBER Working Papers 3752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Marco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1993. "Disappointment aversion as a solution to the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles," Textos para discussão 308, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    15. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont, 1998. "A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500027, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    16. James D. Hamilton & Baldev Raj, 2002. "New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-162.
    17. Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
    18. S. Gluzman & V. I. Yukalov, 1998. "Booms and Crashes in Self-Similar Markets," Papers cond-mat/9810092, arXiv.org.
    19. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yukalov, V.I. & Yukalova, E.P., 1996. "Temporal dynamics in perturbation theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 336-362.
    21. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    23. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    24. Sornette, Didier, 2000. "Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 355-375.
    25. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:70:y:2009:i:1-2:p:206-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.