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An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics

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  • Londono, Juan M.
  • Regúlez, Marta
  • Vázquez, Jesús

Abstract

The price–dividend (PD) ratio must be stationary for the present value model to be valid. However, several market episodes show stock prices drifting apart from dividends. This paper investigates PD ratio stationarity by considering a Markov-switching model featuring an asymmetric adjustment speed toward a unique attractor. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification. Within this specification, the post-war period is mainly characterized by a stationary state featuring slow reversion to a high attractor, the growing PD ratio period of 1996–2000 features a high-reversion stationary regime, and the subprime crisis episode is classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Londono, Juan M. & Regúlez, Marta & Vázquez, Jesús, 2015. "An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 291-307.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:291-307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.03.005
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    2. Yang, Jen-Wei & Tsai, Shu-Yu & Shyu, So-De & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Pairs trading: The performance of a stochastic spread model with regime switching-evidence from the S&P 500," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 139-150.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov regime switching; Price–dividend ratio; Stationarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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