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Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models

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Author Info
Kapetanios, George
Shin, Yongcheol
Snell, Andy

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new testing procedure to detect the presence of a cointegrating relationship that follows a globally stationary smooth transition process. In the context of nonlinear smooth transition error correction models (ECMs) we provide two simple operational versions of the tests. First, we obtain the associated nonlinear ECM-based tests. Second, we derive the nonlinear analogue of the residual-based test for cointegration in linear models. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the proposed tests. Monte Carlo simulation exercises confirm that our proposed tests have much better power than the linear counterparts against the alternative of a globally stationary nonlinear cointegrating process. In an application to the price-dividend relationship, our test is able to find cointegration, whereas the linear-based tests fail to do so.We are grateful to an associate editor, two anonymous referees, Richard Baillie, In Choi, Atanas Christev, Hira Koul, Richard Harris, Cheng Hsiao, Changjin Kim, Joon Park, Peter Schmidt, Yoonjae Whang, Jeff Wooldridge, and seminar participants at University of Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt University, Korea University, University of Leeds, Michigan State University, University of Newcastle, and Sungkunkwan University for their helpful comments. Partial financial support from the ESRC (grant R000223399) is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466606060129
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 22 (2006)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
Pages: 279-303
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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:22:y:2006:i:02:p:279-303_06

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  1. Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2008. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Adjustments of Cointegrating Systems," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 876, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wen-Chi Liu & Tsangyao Chang, 2008. "Rational Bubbles in the Korea Stock Market? Further Evidence based on Nonlinear and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(34), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2007. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ivan Paya & A Duarte & José Luis Nicolini-Llosa, 2007. "Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities," Working Papers 004670, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juan M. Londoño & Marta Regulez & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach," DFAEII Working Papers 200809, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
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