Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices

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Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices

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Allan Timmermann ()

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Allan Timmermann

Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying US stock prices and develops an asset pricing model which considers the possibility of such breaks. Three break points are identified: The Great Depression, World War II, and the oil price shocks around 1974. Different hypotheses for how investors form expectations about future dividends after a break are proposed and analysed. A model in which investors do not have full information about the parameters of the dividend process but gradually update their beliefs as new information arrives is shown to induce volatility clustering and serially correlated stock returns after a break. These patterns are confirmed to exist in US stock returns around the time of the breakpoints.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp311.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp311

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Article
- Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, July.

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Smith, Aaron, 2004. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 11974, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Abbigail Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-25, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 468-480, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-Varying VAR," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
Hyytinen, Ari, 1999. "Stock Return Volatility on Scandinavian Stock Markets and the Banking Industry," Research Discussion Papers 19/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Lansing, Kevin J., 2006. "Lock-In Of Extrapolative Expectations In An Asset Pricing Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 317-348, June. [Downloadable!]
Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 693-708, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pietro Veronesi, . "Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-Uncertainty and Asset Prices,”," CRSP working papers 529, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
Juan M. Londoño & Marta Regulez & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach," DFAEII Working Papers 200809, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]

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