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On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing

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Author Info
JACOB BOUDOUKH
RONI MICHAELY
MATTHEW RICHARDSON
MICHAEL R. ROBERTS

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Abstract

We investigate the empirical implications of using various measures of payout yield rather than dividend yield for asset pricing models. We find statistically and economically significant predictability in the time series when payout (dividends plus repurchases) and net payout (dividends plus repurchases minus issuances) yields are used instead of the dividend yield. Similarly, we find that payout (net payout) yields contains information about the cross section of expected stock returns exceeding that of dividend yields, and that the high minus low payout yield portfolio is a priced factor. Copyright 2007 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01226.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 62 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 877-915
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:2:p:877-915

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shlomo Benartzi & Roni Michaely & Richard Thaler, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," CRSP working papers 455, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  3. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-29, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. " Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2002. "Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-424, July. [Downloadable!]
  10. Miller, Merton H. & Scholes, Myron S., 1978. "Dividends and taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Franklin Allen & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Payout Policy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-21, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Allen, Franklin & Michaely, Roni, 2003. "Payout policy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 337-429 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Taeyoon Sung & Daehwan Kim & Ludwig Chincarini, 2006. "Corporate scandals and the market response of dividend payout changes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 535-549, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wolfgang Lemke & Thomas Werner, 2009. "The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics," Working Paper Series 1045, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Interpreting Aggregate Stock Market Behavior: How Far Can the Standard Model Go?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 5, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2007. "Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?," NBER Working Papers 12847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Clemens Sialm, 2006. "Investment Taxes and Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 12146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street," NBER Working Papers 11564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Tom Engsted & Stuart Hyde & Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit Formation, Surplus Consumption and Return Predictability: International Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2007-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  10. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 352, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Missaka Warusawitharana & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? evidence from predictive regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Joao F. Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Motohiro Yogo, 2007. "Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 12986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jennifer L. Blouin & Jana Smith Raedy & Douglas A. Shackelford, 2007. "Did Firms Substitute Dividends for Share Repurchases after the 2003 Reductions in Shareholder Tax Rates?," NBER Working Papers 13601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Juan M. Londoño & Marta Regulez & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach," DFAEII Working Papers 200809, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  21. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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