This article develops a method of nonlinear modelling for the dividends of the Group of seven (G7) indexes using threshold techniques: Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models (STAR). First, smoothness and nonlinearity are justified by the presence of heterogeneous expectations and companies of different sizes. Then, we show that this methodology is adapted to reproduce persistence in the dividend adjustment dynamics. Finally, we highlight the superiority of STAR models compared to the linear process in modelling dividends and reducing measurement error while forecasting future dividends. STAR forecasting supplanted those of linear model in the short and medium terms.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.