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Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns

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Author Info
Ju, Nengjiu
Miao, Jianjun

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Abstract

We propose a novel generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model which allows a three-way separation among risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and intertemporal substitution. We apply this utility to a consumption-based asset pricing model in which consumption and dividends follow hidden Markov regime-switching processes. Our calibrated model can match the mean equity premium, the mean riskfree rate, and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price-dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, and the mean reversion of excess returns. The key intuition is that an ambiguity averse agent behaves pessimistically by attaching more weight to the pricing kernel in bad times when his continuation values are low.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14737.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision: Apr 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14737

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Related research
Keywords: Ambiguity aversion; learning; asset pricing puzzles; model uncertainty; robustness; pessimism;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicolas Treich, 2008. "The Value of a Statistical Life under Ambiguity Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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