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Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Recursive Models of Ambiguity Aversion

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  • Tomasz Strzalecki

Abstract

Models of ambiguity aversion have recently found many applications in dynamic settings. This paper shows that there is a strong interdependence between ambiguity aversion and the preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, as de ned by the classic work of Kreps and Porteus (1978): the modeling choices that are being made in the domain of ambiguity aversion influence the set of modeling choices available in the domain of timing attitudes. The main result of the paper is that the only model of ambiguity aversion that exhibits indi erence to timing is the maxmin expected utility of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). This paper also examines the structure of the timing nonindi erence implied by the other commonly used models of ambiguity aversion. The interdependence of ambiguity and timing that this paper identi es is of interest both conceptually and practically–especially for economists using these models in applications.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 81 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 1039-1074

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:81:y:2013:i:3:p:1039-1074

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Cited by:
  1. Gumen, Anna & Savochkin, Andrei, 2013. "Dynamically stable preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1487-1508.
  2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2009. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 14734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," CEMA Working Papers 438, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  4. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11032, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  5. Daniele Pennesi, 2013. "Asset Prices in an Ambiguous Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 315, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  6. Bergeron, Claude, 2013. "Dividend sensitivity to economic factors, stock valuation, and long-run risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 184-195.
  7. Haluk Ergin & Todd Sarver, 2012. "Hidden Actions and Preferences for Timing of Resolution of Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 1567, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

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