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Fluctuating Confidence in Stock Markets: Implications for Returns and Volatility

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Author Info
David, Alexander
Abstract

The average relative profitability of different firms in the economy jumps erratically. Although investors are unable to observe these productivity switches, they continuously update their beliefs regarding high and low productivity firms by observing the total return on each firm, which consists of the average productivity plus noise. The portfolio choices, interest rate, and stock return processes are derived in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985a) style general equilibrium model. Three stylized facts of stock market returns are addressed: negative skewness, excess kurtosis, and predictive asymmetry (excess returns and future changes in volatility are negatively correlated). To measure the last stylized fact, an EGARCH model is fitted to sample paths simulated from the model. Parameter values that permit faster learning fit the three facts better.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022109000000727
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 32 (1997)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
Pages: 427-462
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:32:y:1997:i:04:p:427-462_00

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  1. Günter Franke & Erik Lüders, 2005. "Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Aviram Levy & Roberto Perli & Pinar Yesin & Stefan Gerlach & Srichander Ramaswamy & Michela Scatigna, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 2, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 14815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christophe Chamley, 2005. "Complementarities in Information Acquisition with Short-Term Trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-027, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lüders, Erik & Peisl, Bernhard, 2001. "How do investors' expectations drive asset prices?," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-15, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Basak, Suleyman, 2004. "Asset Prices with Heterogenous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Learning and Asset-Price Jumps," NBER Working Papers 14814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ju, Nengjiu & Miao, Jianjun, 2009. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 14737, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  12. Prasad V. Bidarkota & Brice V. Dupoyet & J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "Asset Pricing with Incomplete Information under Stable Shocks," Working Papers 0514, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2008. "Incomplete Information in a Long Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing," Working Papers 0802, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christophe Chamley, 2005. "Complementarities in Information Acquisition with Short-Term Trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-156, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Günter Franke & Erik Lüders, 2004. "Why Do Asset Prices Not Follow Random Walks?," CoFE Discussion Paper 04-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  17. Prasad Bidarkota & Brice Dupoyet, 2006. "Asset Pricing with Incomplete Information In a Discrete Time Pure Exchange Economy," Working Papers 0603, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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