Model Uncertainty and Liquidity
AbstractExtreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for derivative markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, observed behavior of traders and institutions suggests that attitudes toward "model uncertainty" may be qualitatively different than Savage rationality would suggest. For example, a large emphasis is placed on "worst-case scenarios" through the pervasive use of "stress testing" and "value-at-risk" calculations. In this paper we use Knightian uncertainty to describe model uncertainty, and use Choquet-expected-utility preferences to characterize investors aversion to this uncertainty. We show that an increase in model uncertainty can lead to a reduction in liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread set by a monopoly market maker. In addition, the non-standard nature of hedging model uncertainty can lead to broader portfolio adjustment effects like "flight to quality" and "contagion." (Copyright: Elsevier)
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Review of Economic Dynamics Academic Press Editorial Office 525 "B" Street, Suite 1900 San Diego, CA 92101
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/review.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1617, Econometric Society.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2009. "Code files for "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity"," Computer Codes 08-143, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, . "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bryan R. Routledge, Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainity And Liquidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 368, Society for Computational Economics.
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999.
"Robust Permanent Income and Pricing,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
- Lars Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Thomas Tallarini, . "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," GSIA Working Papers 1997-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- David A. Marshall, 2001. "The crisis of 1998 and the role of the central bank," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-23.
- Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, .
"Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
- Larry G. Epstein, 2001. "Sharing Ambiguity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 45-50, May.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1989.
"Liquidity and Market Structure,"
NBER Working Papers
2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002.
"Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals,"
IMF Working Papers
02/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
- Myron S. Scholes, 2000. "Crisis and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 17-21, May.
- Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.