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Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals

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Author Info
Alessandro Prati () (IMF, Research Department)
Massimo Sbracia () (Banca dÂ’Italia, Economic Research Department)

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Abstract

This paper extends some theoretical results of Morris and Shin (1998) concerning the role of uncertainty about fundamentals in currency crises and tests their empirical relevance using a novel approach based on the distribution of survey expectations. Econometric evidence from the Asian crisis confirms the prediction that the dispersion of expectations affects the probability of a speculative attack and that the sign of this effect depends on whether expected fundamentals are "good" or "bad". Extensive robustness checks support the findings.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 446.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_446_02

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Related research
Keywords: speculative attack; exchange rate crisis; public and private information;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hali J. Edison & Robin Brooks & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 01/190, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  13. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Eduardo Borensztein & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Sbracia, Massimo & Zaghini, Andrea, 2001. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 203-222, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner, 2001. "Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1336, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Chan, Kenneth S. & Chiu, Y. Stephen, 2002. "The role of (non-)transparency in a currency crisis model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 397-416, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Self-fulfilling risk predictions:: an application to speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 245-268, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Francesco Caramazza & Luca Antonio Ricci & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Morris, Stephen & Rob, Rafael & Shin, Hyun Song, 1995. "Dominance and Belief Potential," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 145-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christina Bannier, 2003. "The Role of Information Disparity in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso," International Finance 0310001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian currency turmoil of 2002: a nonlinear analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 289-306. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Louise Allsopp, 2003. "Speculative behaviour, debt default and contagion: A stylised framework of the Latin American Crisis 2001-2002," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gaston R. Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/174, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," FRU Working Papers 2004/05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christina E. Bannier & Jochen Michaelis, 2003. "The Role of Information Disparity in the Mexican Peso Crisis 1994/95: Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 44/03, University of Kassel, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Charalambos Christofides & Christian B. Mulder & Andrew Tiffin, 2003. "The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practice, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings," IMF Working Papers 03/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1375-1375 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2007. "Banks, Markets and Liquidity," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christina E. Bannier, 2003. "Privacy or Publicity - Who Drives the Wheel?," Game Theory and Information 0309006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps (J.P.E., June 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 209, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sanne Zwart, 2005. "Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francisco Peñaranda & Jón Daníelsson, 2007. "On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability," Economics Working Papers 1003, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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