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Ambiguity, Learning, And Asset Returns

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  • Jianjun Miao

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University, CEMA, Central University of Finance and Economics, and AFR, Zhejiang University)

  • NENGJIU JU

    ()
    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong and SAIF, Shanghai Jiaotong University, China)

Abstract

We propose a novel generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model which permits a three-way separation among risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and intertemporal substitution. We apply this utility model to a consumption-based asset-pricing model in which consumption and dividends follow hidden Markov regime-switching processes. Our calibrated model can match the mean equity premium, the mean risk-free rate, and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset-pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price–dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, the leverage effect, and the mean reversion of excess returns. The key intuition is that an ambiguity-averse agent behaves pessimistically by attaching more weight to the pricing kernel in bad times when his continuation values are low.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2010-031.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2010-031

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Keywords: Ambiguity aversion; learning; asset-pricing puzzles; model uncertainty; robustness; pessimism; regime switching.;

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