Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model such as in derivative markets. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, the observed behavior of traders and institutions that places a large emphasis on 'worst-case scenarios'' through the use of 'stress testing'' and 'value-at-risk'' seems different than Savage rationality (expected utility) would suggest. In this paper we capture model-uncertainty explicitly using an Epstein-Wang (1994) uncertainty-averse utility function with an ambiguous underlying asset-returns distribution. To explore the connection of uncertainty with liquidity, we specify a simple market where a monopolist financial intermediary makes a market for a propriety derivative security. The market-maker chooses bid and ask prices for the derivative, then, conditional on trade in this market, chooses an optimal portfolio and consumption. We explore how uncertainty can increase the bid-ask spread and, hence, reduces liquidity. In addition, 'hedge portfolios'' for the market-maker, an important component to understanding spreads, can look very different from those implied by a model without Knightian uncertainty. Our infinite-horizon example produces short, dramatic decreases in liquidity even though the underlying environment is stationary.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
8683.
Length: Date of creation: Dec 2001 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8683
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Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988.
"Liquidity And Market Structure,"
Papers
88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002.
"Learning Under Ambiguity,"
RCER Working Papers
497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2005.
"Trusting the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
11648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004.
"Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists,"
Working Papers
04-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]