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Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk

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Author Info
Lars Peter Hansen
John C. Heaton
Nan Li

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Abstract

We characterize and measure a long-term risk-return trade-off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade-off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the long-run dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic valuation model and of the model cash flow dynamics. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/588200
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 116 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 260-302
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:116:y:2008:i:2:p:260-302

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  1. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2007. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows," NBER Working Papers 12912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jason Beeler & John Y. Campbell, 2009. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," NBER Working Papers 14788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Skander J. Van den Heuvel, 2008. "Temporal risk aversion and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Dario Caldara & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Wen Yao, 2009. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences," NBER Working Papers 15026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 305-326. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 283-300. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lars Peter Hansen, 2008. "Modeling the Long Run: Valuation in Dynamic Stochastic Economies," NBER Working Papers 14243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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