Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk
AbstractWe characterize and measure a long-term risk-return trade-off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade-off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the long-run dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic valuation model and of the model cash flow dynamics. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.
Volume (Year): 116 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/
Other versions of this item:
- Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Nan Li, 2005. "Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 11476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
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