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Growth or glamour? fundamentals and systemic risk in stock returns

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  • John Campbell
  • Christopher Polk
  • Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Abstract

The cash flows of growth stocks are particularly sensitive to temporary movements in aggregate stock prices, driven by shocks to market discount rates, while the cash flows of value stocks are particularly sensitive to permanent movements, driven by shocks to aggregate cash flows. Thus, the high betas of growth (value) stocks with the market's discount-rate (cash-flow) shocks are determined by the cash-flow fundamentals of growth and value companies. Growth stocks are not merely "glamour stocks" whose systematic risks are purely driven by investor sentiment. More generally, the systematic risks of individual stocks with similar accounting characteristics are primarily driven by the systematic risks of their fundamentals. The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:28

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Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Risk management;

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References

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  1. Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
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  4. Michail Koubouros & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2010. "Long-run cash flow and discount-rate risks in the cross-section of US returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-244.
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  6. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  16. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
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  18. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
  19. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2016, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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