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The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks

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Author Info
Venkat R. Eleswarapu (Southern Methodist University)
Abstract

We find that annual excess returns on the stock market index are negatively related to the returns of glamour stocks in the previous 36-month period. In contrast, neither returns of value stocks nor aggregate stock market returns, purged of glamour stock effects, have any predictive power. In addition, the excess returns on the aggregate market are negatively skewed when the prior returns of glamour stocks are high. Finally, the inclusion of term premium, default premium, aggregate dividend yield, and the consumption-to-wealth ratio (CAY) as control variables do not materially alter the predictive power of prior glamour stock returns.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB770203
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 275-294
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:77:y:2004:i:2:p:275-294

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  1. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1610206, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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