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Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?

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  • Jiang, Xiaoquan
  • Zaman, Mir A.
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    Abstract

    We decompose realized market returns into expected return, unexpected cash-flow news and unexpected discount rate news to test the relation between aggregate market returns and aggregate insider trading. We find that (1) the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is much stronger than what was reported in earlier studies, (2) aggregate insider trading is strongly related to unexpected cash-flow news, (3) market expectations do not cause insider trading contrary to what others have documented, and (4) aggregate insider trading in firms with high information uncertainty is more likely to be associated with contrarian investment strategy. These results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is because of insider's ability to predict future cash-flow news rather than from adopting a contrarian investment strategy. These results hold even after we control for non-informative trades and information uncertainty.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1225-1236

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1225-1236

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Insider trading Return decomposition Discount rate news Cash-flow news Contrarian investment strategy;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Fidrmuc, Jana P. & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2013. "Why does shareholder protection matter for abnormal returns after reported insider purchases and sales?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1915-1935.
    2. Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
    3. Lu, Chia-Wu & Chen, Tsung-Kang & Liao, Hsien-Hsing, 2010. "Information uncertainty, information asymmetry and corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2265-2279, September.

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