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Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions

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Author Info
Randolph B. Cohen
Paul A. Gompers
Tuomo Vuolteenaho

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Abstract

A large body of literature suggests that firm-level stock prices 'underreact' to news about future cash flows, i.e., shocks to a firm's expected cash flows are positively correlated with shocks to expected returns on its stock. We estimate a vector autoregession to examine the joint behavior of returns, cash-flow news, and trading between individuals and institutions. Our main finding is that institutions buy shares from individuals in response to good cash-flow news, thus exploiting the underreaction phenomenon. Institutions are not simply following price momentum strategies: When price goes up in the absence of positive cash-flow news, institutions sell shares to individuals. Although institutions are trading in the 'right' direction, institutions as a group outperform individuals by only 1.44 percent per annum before transaction and other costs, because they are extremely conservative in deviating from the value-weight market index.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8793.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8793

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea & Verardo, Michela, 2007. "Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-Term Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Olli Castrén & Chiara Osbat & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall K. Morck, 2004. "Heterogeneous Investors and their Changing Demand and Supply Schedules for Individual Common Stocks," NBER Working Papers 10410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2008. "Are all professional investors sophisticated?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-397, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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