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Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-term Equity Returns

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  • Amil Dasgupta

    ()

  • Andrea Prat

    ()

  • Michela Verardo

    ()

Abstract

Recent studies show that single-quarter institutional herding positively predicts short-term returns. Motivated by the theoretical herding literature, which emphasizes endogenous persistence in decisions over time, we estimate the effect of multi-quarter institutional buying and selling on stock returns. Using both regression and portfolio tests, we find that persistent institutional trading negatively predicts long-term returns: persistently sold stocks outperform persistently bought stocks at long horizons. The negative association between returns and institutional trade persistence is not subsumed by past returns or other stock characteristics, is concentrated among smaller stocks, and is stronger for stocks with higher institutional ownership.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp661.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp661

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cao, Charles & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W. & Petrasek, Lubomir, 2014. "Hedge fund holdings and stock market efficiency," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling & Ulrich Schmidt, 2010. "Are All Professional Investors Sophisticated?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 418-440, November.
  3. Brounen, Dirk & Kok, Nils & Ling, David C., 2012. "Shareholder composition, share turnover, and returns in volatile markets: The case of international REITs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1867-1889.
  4. Choi, Nicole & Sias, Richard W., 2009. "Institutional industry herding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 469-491, December.
  5. Fang Cai & Song Han & Dan Li, 2012. "Institutional herding in the corporate bond market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Changki Kim & Yangho Choi & Woojoo Lee & Jae Youn Ahn, 2013. "Analyzing Herd Behavior in Global Stock Markets: An Intercontinental Comparison," Papers 1308.3966, arXiv.org.
  7. Jiang, Hao, 2010. "Institutional investors, intangible information, and the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 98-126, April.

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