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Caught On Tape: Institutional Order Flow and Stock Returns

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Tarun Ramadorai
Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho

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Abstract

Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track high-frequency changes in institutional ownership. In the US, however, institutions are only required to report their ownership quarterly in 13-F filings. We infer daily institutional trading behavior from the "tape", the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, using both a naive approach and a sophisticated method that best matches quarterly 13-F data. Increases in our measures of institutional flows negatively predict returns, particularly when institutions are selling. We interpret this as evidence that 13-F institutions compensate more patient investors for the service of providing liquidity. We also find that both very large and very small trades signal institutional activity, while medium size trades signal activity by the rest of the market.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11439.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11439

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Campbell, John Y & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2007. "Caught On Tape: Institutional Trading, Stock Returns, and Earnings Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 6390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-331, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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