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Caught On Tape: Institutional Order Flow and Stock Returns

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  • John Y. Campbell
  • Tarun Ramadorai
  • Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho

Abstract

Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track high-frequency changes in institutional ownership. In the US, however, institutions are only required to report their ownership quarterly in 13-F filings. We infer daily institutional trading behavior from the "tape", the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, using both a naive approach and a sophisticated method that best matches quarterly 13-F data. Increases in our measures of institutional flows negatively predict returns, particularly when institutions are selling. We interpret this as evidence that 13-F institutions compensate more patient investors for the service of providing liquidity. We also find that both very large and very small trades signal institutional activity, while medium size trades signal activity by the rest of the market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11439.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Publication status: published as Campbell, John Y. & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2009. "Caught on tape: Institutional trading, stock returns, and earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 66-91, April.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11439

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Cited by:
  1. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
  2. Campbell, John & Schwartz, Allie & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2009. "Caught on Tape: Institutional Trading, Stock Returns, and Earnings Announcements," Scholarly Articles 2609649, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Boyer, Brian & Zheng, Lu, 2009. "Investor flows and stock market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-100, January.
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-331, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-357, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "Who moves stock prices? Monthly evidence," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/4, University of Stavanger.

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