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Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-Term Equity Returns

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Author Info
Dasgupta, Amil
Prat, Andrea
Verardo, Michela

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Abstract

How does the trading behaviour of institutional money managers affect stock prices? In this paper we document a robust relationship between the net trade patterns of institutional money managers and long term equity returns. Examining quarterly data on US institutional holdings from 1983 to 2004, we find evidence that stocks that have been persistently bought (sold) by institutions in the past 3 to 5 quarters underperform (overperform) the rest of the market in the next 12 to 30 months. Our results are of a similar magnitude to, but distinct from, other known asset pricing anomalies. Furthermore, we find that institutional investors show an aggregate tendency to trade in the direction of past institutional trades, buying stocks that have been persistently bought and selling stocks that have been persistently sold. We present a simple model of career-concerned trading by delegated portfolio managers that generates results consistent with our empirical findings.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6374.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6374

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Related research
Keywords: career concerns; institutional investors; return predictability; trading behaviour;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2008. "Are all professional investors sophisticated?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-397, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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