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Caught On Tape: Institutional Order Flow and Stock Returns

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  • John Y. Campbell
  • Tarun Ramadorai
  • Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho

Abstract

Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track high-frequency changes in institutional ownership. In the US, however, institutions are only required to report their ownership quarterly in 13-F filings. We infer daily institutional trading behavior from the "tape", the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, using both a naive approach and a sophisticated method that best matches quarterly 13-F data. Increases in our measures of institu- tional flows negatively predict returns, particularly when institutions are selling. We interpret this as evidence that 13-F institutions compensate more patient investors for the service of providing liquidity. We also find that both very large and very small trades signal institutional activity, while medium size trades signal activity by the rest of the market.

Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai & Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Caught On Tape: Institutional Order Flow and Stock Returns," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2080, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2080
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    2. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "Who moves stock prices? Monthly evidence," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/4, University of Stavanger.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2009. "Caught on tape: Institutional trading, stock returns, and earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 66-91, April.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Local information in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1383-1406, December.
    6. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
    7. Boyer, Brian & Zheng, Lu, 2009. "Investor flows and stock market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-100, January.

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