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Caught on Tape: Predicting Institutional Ownership With Order Flow

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Tarun Ramadorai
Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho

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Abstract

Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track institutional equity ownership continuously. However, these data are only available on quarterly reporting dates. We infer institutional trading behavior from the "tape," the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, by regress- ing quarterly changes in reported institutional ownership on quarterly buy and sell volume in different trade size categories. Our regression method predicts institutional ownership signifcantly better than the simple cutoff rules used in previous research. We also find that total buy (sell) volume predicts increasing (decreasing) institutional ownership, consistent with institutions demanding liquidity in aggregate. Furthermore, institutions tend to trade in large or very small sizes: buy (sell) volume at these sizes predicts increasing (decreasing) institutional ownership, while the pattern reverses at intermediate trade sizes that appear favored by individuals. We then explore changes in institutional trading strategies. Institutions appear to prefer medium size trades on high volume days and large size trades on high volatility days.

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Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 2046.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2046

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001. "Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. " Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-58, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm146, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors And Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Randolph B. Cohen & Paul A. Gompers & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 8793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Finucane, Thomas J., 2000. "A Direct Test of Methods for Inferring Trade Direction from Intra-Day Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 553-576, December. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2006. "Two-sided markets and intertemporal trade clustering: insights into trading motives," Staff Reports 246, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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