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Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies

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Author Info
Harrison Hong
Terence Lim
Jeremy C. Stein

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Abstract

A number of theories have been proposed to explain the medium-term momentum in stock returns identified by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). We test one such theory--based on the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1997)--and establish three key results. First, once one moves past the very smallest stocks (where thin market-making capacity appears to be an issue) the profitability of momentum strategies declines sharply with firm size. Second, holding size fixed, momentum strategies work particularly well among stocks which have low analyst coverage. Finally, there is a strong asymmetry: the effect of analyst coverage is much more pronounced for stocks that are past losers than for stocks that are past winners. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that firm-specific information only gradually across the investing public.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6553.

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Date of creation: May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6553

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. "Investment analysis and price formation in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 361-381, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Patricia Chelley-steeley & Antonios Siganos, 2004. "Momentum profits and macroeconomic factors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 433-436, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Borgsen, Sina & Glaser, Markus, 2005. "Diversifikationseffekte durch Small und Mid Caps?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-10, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2001. "Breadth of Ownership and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 7687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Schultz, 2004. "Do Acquirers With More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less From Acquisitions?," Working Papers 05-17, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harrison Hong & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2002. "Do Industries Lead the Stock Market? Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1051, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2000. "Market Efficiency in an Irrational World," NBER Working Papers 7489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Francesco Franzoni & José M. Marín, 2005. "Pension Plan Funding and Stock Market Efficiency," Economics Working Papers 871, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Tarun Chordia & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2000. "Order Imbalance and Individual Stock Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1080, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Economics Working Papers E00-282, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  11. Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1031, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  12. Polk, Christopher & Sapienza, Paola, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0012002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nijman, T. & Swinkels, L. & Verbeek, M., 2002. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Discussion Paper 9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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