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European Momentum Strategies, Information Diffusion, and Investor Conservatism

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  • John A. Doukas
  • Phillip J. McKnight

Abstract

"In this paper we conduct an out-of-sample test of two behavioural theories that have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and the investor conservatism bias model of Barberis et al. (1998) in a sample of 13 European stock markets during the period 1988 to 2001. These two models predict that momentum comes from the (i) gradual dissemination of firm-specific information and (ii) investors' failure to update their beliefs sufficiently when they observe new public information. The findings of this study are consistent with the predictions of the behavioural models of Hong and Stein's (1999) and Barberis et al. (1998). The evidence shows that momentum is the result of the gradual diffusion of private information and investors' psychological conservatism reflected on the systematic errors they make in forming earnings expectations by not updating them adequately relative to their prior beliefs and by undervaluing the statistical weight of new information." Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 313-338

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Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:3:p:313-338

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. : John A. Doukas & Constantinos Antoniou & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2011. "Sentiment and Momentum," Working Papers wpn11-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org.
  3. Galariotis, Emilios C., 2010. "What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 369-389, September.
  4. McKnight, Phillip J. & Hou, Tony C.T., 2006. "The determinants of momentum in the United Kingdom," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 227-240, May.
  5. Antoniou, Antonios & Lam, Herbert Y.T. & Paudyal, Krishna, 2007. "Profitability of momentum strategies in international markets: The role of business cycle variables and behavioural biases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 955-972, March.
  6. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
  7. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
  8. Emilios Galariotis, 2010. "What should investors know about the stability of momentum investing and its riskiness? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Post-Print hal-00917587, HAL.
  9. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Siganos, Antonios, 2008. "Momentum profits in alternative stock market structures," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 131-144, April.
  10. Morelli, David, 2014. "Momentum profits and conditional time-varying systematic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 242-255.

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