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Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Christopher Polk
Tuomo Vuolteenaho

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Abstract

The cash flows of growth stocks are particularly sensitive to temporary movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by movements in the equity risk premium), while the cash flows of value stocks are particularly sensitive to permanent movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by market-wide shocks to cash flows. ) Thus the high betas of growth stocks with the market's discount-rate shocks, and of value stocks with the market's cash-flow shocks, are determined by the cash-flow fundamentals of growth and value companies. Growth stocks are not merely "glamour stocks" whose systematic risks are purely driven by investor sentiment. More generally, accounting measures of firm-level risk have predictive power for firms' betas with market-wide cash flows, and this predictive power arises from the behavior of firms' cash flows. The systematic risks of stocks with similar accounting characteristics are primarily driven by the systematic risks of their fundamentals.

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Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 2082.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2082

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  11. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Myers, Stewart C & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1977. "Capital Budgeting and the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Good News and Bad News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 321-33, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1610206, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dimitrios Thomakos & Michail Koubouros, 2008. "The Role of Realized Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0020, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 11906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2007. "A two-Factor Asset Pricing Model and the Fat Tail Distribution of Firm Sizes," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0702027, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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