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Long-run cash flow and discount-rate risks in the cross-section of US returns

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  • Michail Koubouros
  • Dimitrios Malliaropulos
  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

Abstract

This paper decomposes the overall market beta of common stocks into four parts reflecting uncertainty related to the long-run dynamics of stock-specific and market-wide cash flows and discount rates. We employ a discrete time version of Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model to test whether these four sources of risk command different risk prices. The model performs well in pricing average returns on single- and double-sorted portfolios according to size, book-to-market, dividend-price ratios and past risk. It generates high estimates for the explained cross-sectional variation in average returns, lower average pricing errors than the Fama-French three-factor model and economically and statistically acceptable estimates for the coefficient of relative risk aversion.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470903102419
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 227-244

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:227-244

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Related research

Keywords: CAPM; cash-flow risk; discount-rate risk; asset pricing;

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References

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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Understanding Risk and Return," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  8. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
  9. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  10. Chacko, George & Viceira, Luis M, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
  12. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  13. McQueen, Grant & Pinegar, Michael & Thorley, Steven, 1996. " Delayed Reaction to Good News and the Cross-Autocorrelation of Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 889-919, July.
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  15. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  17. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  18. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 1996. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 5604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  20. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
  21. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
  2. Mahmoud Botshekan & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas, 2010. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-116/2/DSF 3, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Mahmoud Botshekan & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas, 2010. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-116/2/DSF 3, Tinbergen Institute.

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