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A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades

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  • Stotz, Olaf
  • Georgi, Dominik

Abstract

Among the various external information sources that influence individual investors' trading decisions, no research has considered the important influence of insiders' transactions. Retail investors might copy the behavior demonstrated by insiders' trading; therefore, this study establishes an approach to estimate the buying probability for a certain stock by a certain investor at a certain point in time and analyzes whether insider trade reports influence this probability. Using a sample of more than 270,000 retail trades in Germany between 2008 and 2009, along with more than 3000 insider trades in the same period, we find evidence of copying of insiders' trades by retail investors. The basic mimicry hypothesis holds, even when we consider an information event hypothesis and an insider attention effect hypothesis as alternative explanations. A robustness test also supports the findings.

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  • Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:21:y:2012:i:4:p:159-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2012.04.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Basheer Ahmad & Usman Ali Warraich & Sidra Saeed, 2014. "Impact Of Investor Sentiments On Future Trading," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(2), pages 16-32.
    2. Basheer Ahmad & Usman Ali Warraich & Sidra Saeed, 2014. "Impact Of Investor Sentiments On Future Trading," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(2), pages 10-12.
    3. André Schmidt, 2017. "Determinants of Corporate Voting – Evidence from a Large Survey of German Retail Investors," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(1), pages 71-103, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insider investors; Retail investors; Trading decisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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