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Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns

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  • Drakos, Konstantinos

Abstract

Motivated by the literature on investor sentiment and assuming that terrorist activity influences investor mood, in this paper we explore whether terrorism exerts a significant negative impact on daily stock market returns in a sample of 22 countries. The employed empirical specifications are based on flexible versions of the World CAPM, allowing for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The results suggest that terrorist activity leads to significantly lower returns on the day a terrorist attack occurs. In addition, the negative effect of terrorist activity is substantially amplified as the level of psychosocial effects increases. On the one hand, this evidence sheds light on the underlying mechanism via which terrorism affects stock markets while on the other hand, it provides further empirical support for the sentiment effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 128-135

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Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:19:y:2010:i:3:p:128-135

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

Related research

Keywords: Sentiment Terrorism Stock market Panel Pooled panel ARCH;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
  2. Christos Kallandranis & Konstantinos Drakos, 2011. "Terrorism Shocks and Stock Market Reaction Patterns," EUSECON Policy Briefing 14, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: The Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 67, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
  5. Randall Filer & Dragana Stanišic, 2012. "The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 3998, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Essaddam, Naceur & Karagianis, John M., 2014. "Terrorism, country attributes, and the volatility of stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-100.
  7. Bos J.W.B. & Frömmel M. & Lamers M.A.J., 2013. "FDI, terrorism and the availability heuristic for U.S. investors before and after 9/11," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  8. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  9. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
  10. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 154-167, November.

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