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Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather

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Author Info
David Hirshleifer (Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Department of Finance)
TYLER G. SHUMWAY (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relation between morning sunshine at a country's leading stock exchange and market index stock returns that day at 26 stock exchanges internationally from 1982- 97. Sunshine is strongly positively correlated with daily stock returns. After controlling for sunshine, other weather conditions such as rain and snow are unrelated to returns. If transactions costs are assumed to be minor, it is possible to trade profitably on the weather. These results are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price-setting.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0412004.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0412004

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 40. PDF
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: market efficiency; mood and securities prices; psychology and finance;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G - Financial Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," Economics Working Papers E00-284, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael S. Rashes, 2001. "Massively Confused Investors Making Conspicuously Ignorant Choices (MCI-MCIC)," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1911-1927, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George Loewenstein, 2000. "Emotions in Economic Theory and Economic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 426-432, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Loewenstein, George, 1996. "Out of Control: Visceral Influences on Behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 272-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Raghavendra Rau, P. & Vermaelen, Theo, 1998. "Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 223-253, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Michaely, Roni, 1988. "Information Quality and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 53-70, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark Britten-Jones, 1999. "The Sampling Error in Estimates of Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolio Weights," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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