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Month of the Year Effect and January Effect in Pre-WWI Stock Returns: Evidence from a Non-linear GARCH Model

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  • Choudhry, Taufiq
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates seasonal anomalies in the mean stock returns of Germany, the UK and the US during pre-World War I (WWI) period. The anomalies studied are month of the year effect and the January effect. The empirical research is conducted using a non-linear GARCH-t model, and monthly returns. Results obtained provide evidence of the January effect and the month of the year effect on the UK and the US returns. The German returns shows the month of the year effect but no January effect. Given the lack of tax treatment of capital gains/loss before 1914 by these countries, the results fail to provide merit to the tax-loss selling hypothesis of the January effect. Since we apply value-weighted returns in all cases, results obtained also fail to provide support for the small firm effect. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 1-11

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:1:p:1-11

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    Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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    Cited by:
    1. Selim Aren & Lutfihak Alpkan & Bulent Sezen & Ziya Alper Guncu, 2011. "Drivers of firms’ debt ratios: evidence from Taiwanese and Turkish firms," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, May.
    2. Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Syed Khalid Wafa, Syed Azizi Wafa, 2006. "Calendar anomalies in the Malaysian stock market," MPRA Paper 516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Feedback Trading and Predictability of Stock Returns in Germany, 1880-1913," Kiel Working Papers 1213, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2013. "MOY effects in returns and in volatilities of the Romanian capital market," MPRA Paper 52474, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Oct 2013.
    5. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "Efecte Gone Fishin’ la Bursa de Valori din Bucureşti
      [Gone Fishin’ Effects on the Bucharest Stock Exchange]
      ," MPRA Paper 52473, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2013.
    6. Floros, Christos & Salvador, Enrique, 2014. "Calendar anomalies in cash and stock index futures: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 216-223.
    7. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2013. "Month-of-the-year effects on Romanian capital market before and after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 53069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2013.

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