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Feedback Trading and Predictability of Stock Returns in Germany, 1880?1913

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

I use a time-varying parameter model in order to study the predictability of monthly real stock returns in Germany over the period 1880?1913. I find that the extent to which returns were predictable underwent significant changes over time. Specifically, predictability of returns, as measured by their first-order autocorrelation coefficient, was positive most of the time. It tended to be significant during extended periods of stock market decline, but not during periods of stock market increase. I argue that this timepattern of predictability of returns is consistent with feedback effects of futures trading on the spot market.

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian, 2004. "Feedback Trading and Predictability of Stock Returns in Germany, 1880?1913," Kiel Working Papers 1213, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1213
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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Riaz MALIK* & Attaullah SHAH*, 2014. "Market Varying Conditional Risk-Return Relationship," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 24(2), pages 121-142.
    2. Do, A. & Powell, R. & Yong, J. & Singh, A., 2020. "Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A, B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Return Predictability; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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