IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity needs, private information, feedback trading: verifying motives to trade

Author

Listed:
  • Bartosz Gębka

    (Newcastle University Business School)

  • Dobromił Serwa

    (National Bank of Poland, Financial System Department; Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Econometrics)

Abstract

We analyse investors‟ motives for trading on international stock markets and investigate whether evidence for these motives is robust when time-varying market volatility, changes between calm and turbulent periods, and existence of international financial spillovers are controlled for. Applying the Markov-switching GARCH specification of the standard model commonly used in the literature, we find that trades conducted due to liquidity needs or driven by private information cannot be identified unequivocally in any market, and positive feedback trading becomes predominant when return spillovers from the US market are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosz Gębka & Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Liquidity needs, private information, feedback trading: verifying motives to trade," NBP Working Papers 119, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/119_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-434.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    4. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    5. Cooper, Michael, 1999. "Filter Rules Based on Price and Volume in Individual Security Overreaction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 901-935.
    6. Conrad, Jennifer S & Hameed, Allaudeen & Niden, Cathy, 1994. "Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1305-1329, September.
    7. Bartosz Gebka, 2005. "Dynamic volume-return relationship: evidence from an emerging capital market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1019-1029.
    8. Schotman, Peter C. & Zalewska, Anna, 2006. "Non-synchronous trading and testing for market integration in Central European emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 462-494, October.
    9. Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.
    10. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    11. Asgharian, Hossein & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Risk contagion among international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, February.
    12. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    13. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February.
    14. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2010. "Time-varying integration, interdependence and contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 791-818, September.
    15. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y. & Pérignon, Christophe, 2009. "Commonality in Liquidity: A Global Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 851-882, August.
    16. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    17. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    18. Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
    19. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    20. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2004. "Empirical Evidence on Feedback Trading in Mature and Emerging Stock Markets," Research Paper Series 137, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    21. Alsubaie, Abdullah & Najand, Mohammad, 2009. "Abnormal trading volume and autoregressive behavior in weekly stock returns in the Saudi stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 207-225, September.
    22. Emanuele Bajo, 2010. "The Information Content of Abnormal Trading Volume," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7‐8), pages 950-978, July.
    23. Kotaro Miwa & Kazuhiro Ueda, 2011. "A Dynamic Volume–Return Relation and Investors' Positive Feedback Trading," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 325-351, September.
    24. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    25. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    26. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
    27. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    28. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    29. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    30. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
    31. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    32. V. Coudert & M. Gex, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Post-Print halshs-00321667, HAL.
    33. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Michael D. McKenzie, 2005. "An Investigation of Conditional Autocorrelation and Cross-Autocorrelation in Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 467-499.
    34. Parisi, Franco & Acevedo, Carlos, 2001. "Volume and autocovariance in short-horizon stock returns: Evidence from 1992 to 1998 in Chile," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 275-285.
    35. Ciner, Cetin & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K., 2008. "Information asymmetry, speculation and foreign trading activity: Emerging market evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 664-680, September.
    36. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. "Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-181, March.
    37. Emel Kahya, 1997. "Correlation of Returns in Non-Contemporaneous Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 123-135, June.
    38. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    39. Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Brzeszczynski, Janusz, 2009. "Inter-regional and region-specific transmission of international stock market returns: The role of foreign information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 322-343, March.
    40. Stefanie Kleimeier & Thorsten Lehnert & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2008. "Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 493-508, August.
    41. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
    42. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gębka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromił, 2015. "The elusive nature of motives to trade: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 147-157.
    2. Zolotoy, L., 2008. "Empirical essays on the information transfer between and the informational efficiency of stock markets," Other publications TiSEM 2a2652c6-1060-4622-8721-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
    4. Yaseen S. Alhaj-Yaseen & Eddery Lam & John T. Barkoulas, 2012. "Going public abroad: the dynamics of return spillovers in an atypical international cross listing case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2035-2046, December.
    5. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    6. Ciner, Cetin & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K., 2008. "Information asymmetry, speculation and foreign trading activity: Emerging market evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 664-680, September.
    7. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    8. Boulis Ibrahim & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2013. "Interdependence of Stock Markets Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2007," CFI Discussion Papers 1305, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
    9. Gębka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The determinants of quantile autocorrelations: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 51-61.
    10. Gebka, Bartosz, 2006. "Leaders and Laggards: International Evidence on Spillovers in Returns, Variance, and Trading Volume," Working Paper Series 2006,1, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    11. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Lau, Marco C.K., 2011. "Investor sentiment and feedback trading: Evidence from the exchange-traded fund markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 292-305.
    13. Gębka, Bartosz & Karoglou, Michail, 2013. "Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for, and not against, the European financial integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3639-3653.
    14. Alsubaie, Abdullah & Najand, Mohammad, 2009. "Abnormal trading volume and autoregressive behavior in weekly stock returns in the Saudi stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 207-225, September.
    15. Kutan, Ali M. & Shi, Yukun & Wei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yang, 2018. "Does the introduction of index futures stabilize stock markets? Further evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 183-197.
    16. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    17. Pawan Jain & Wen-Jun Xue, 2017. "Global Investigation of Return Autocorrelation and its Determinants," Working Papers 1704, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    18. Bartosz Gebka, 2005. "Dynamic volume-return relationship: evidence from an emerging capital market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1019-1029.
    19. Zhaodan Huang & James B. Heian, 2010. "Trading‐Volume Shocks And Stock Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 153-177, June.
    20. Thomas C. Chiang & Cathy W.S. Chen & Mike K.P. So, 2007. "Asymmetric Return and Volatility Responses to Composite News from Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(3-4), pages 179-210, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informed trading; liquidity trading; feedback trading; return autocorrelation; trading volume; financial spillovers; contagion.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jakub Growiec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.