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Estimating the Equity Premium

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  • Campbell, John

Abstract

Finance theory restricts the time-series behaviour of valuation ratios and links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. This can be used to strengthen the evidence for predictability in stock returns. Steady-state valuation models are useful predictors of stock returns, given the persistence in valuation ratios. A steady-state approach suggests that the world geometric average equity premium fell considerably in the late twentieth century, rose modestly in the early years of the twenty-first century, and was almost 4% at the end of March 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3196339.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Canadian Journal of Economics
Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3196339

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04.
  4. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Venkat R. Eleswarapu, 2004. "The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 275-294, April.
  6. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
  8. Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael R. Roberts, 2007. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 877-915, 04.
  9. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2006. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," 2006 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm124, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
  12. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Understanding Risk and Return," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  14. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
  15. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
  16. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  18. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  19. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2005. "Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 963-986, 04.
  20. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Walentin, Karl, 2007. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," Working Paper Series 215, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," AMSE Working Papers 1301, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Jan 2013.
  4. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  5. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2010. "The efficiency of Greek public pension fund portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2158-2167, September.
  7. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  8. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino, 2012. "Empirical Estimation of the Cost of Equity: An Application to Selected Brazilian Utilities Companies," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0765, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  9. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "What is the Chance that the Equity Premium Varies over Time? Evidence from Regressions on the Dividend-Price Ratio," NBER Working Papers 17334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2011. "The volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors and economic cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2197-2216, September.

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